6
Arrow Ghost
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 57
Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength7%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength32%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 31/12/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 09/01/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 18/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 01/04/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |