1
Dare Defying
3yo Colt · 8-7 · OR 78
Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Keeneland | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 07/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 12/06/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |