5
Desi's Trouble
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 48
Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 7.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 36% | -0.16 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 27/06/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 33% | -0.49 |
| 19/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |