Diamond Knife

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 78

Colonial Downs · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

86%

Place Prob

54%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-06-28	Colonial Downs	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-01-10	Gulfstream	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2025-11-01	Gulfstream	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 11

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/11/2025	3rd	9/1	53%	71%	+0.19
10/01/2026	7th	12/1	37%	14%	-0.23
28/06/2026	5th	11/4	86%	20%	-0.66