14
Al Ameeq
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 81
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#13
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/12/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 10/01/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 22% | -0.04 |
| 28/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 25/03/2026 | 12th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 02/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |