2
Arjay
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 06/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 14/09/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 25/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 24/06/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 17% | -0.10 |
| 16/07/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |