9
Bar Fourteen
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 97
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 14
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 5th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/12/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 28/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/02/2026 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 03/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |