5
Chico Charlie
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#10
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-01-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 14
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 21/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 21/01/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 05/02/2026 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 15/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 56% | -0.13 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 03/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |