12
Create Trouble
6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 94
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength15%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 14
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength88%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 13/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 27/12/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 07/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 06/03/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 82% | -0.08 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 40% | -0.31 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |