1
King Nate
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 78
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#14
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 14
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 14/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 43% | -0.33 |
| 29/07/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 22/03/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 16/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |