Smols
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 76
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#9
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2025-11-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/09/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 11/04/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |