Tok Tok
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 92
Colonial Downs · Race 4 - Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-04-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 13% | -0.64 |
| 24/12/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 88% | +0.05 |
| 17/01/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 20/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 21/03/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 15/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |