4
Alakan
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 97
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 2f
#7
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength20%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 89% | +0.06 |
| 09/11/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 50% | -0.16 |
| 12/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 91% | +0.08 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |