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10

Celtic Flame

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 99

Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 2f

#6

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

3%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Turfway Park 04/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 1m 1204/01C6C6 @ Turfway Park 01/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 96 · 1m 120 · below its mark01/03/2026 · OR 96 par1/03C6OR 96C6 @ Turfway Park 21/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 90 · 1m 120 · beat its mark21/03/2026 · OR 90 par21/03C6OR 90C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 91 · 1m110y Fm 123 · below its mark09/05/2026 · OR 91 par9/05C6OR 91C6 @ Delaware Park 13/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark13/06/2026 · OR 96 par13/06C6OR 96projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-13Delaware Park?6th7th−1
2026-05-09Belmont At The Big A?3rd4th−1
2026-03-21Turfway Park?1st2nd−1
2026-03-01Turfway Park?5th6th−1
2026-01-04Turfway Park?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/011/0321/039/0513/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength66%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/01/20262nd7/163%91%+0.28
01/03/20265th11/893%50%-0.43
21/03/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
09/05/20263rd14/126%60%+0.34
13/06/20266th5/287%44%-0.42