5
Twain
4yo Colt · 8-11 · OR 96
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 2f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
66%
Place Prob
42%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-31 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-05-17 | Pimlico | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength64%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 14/06/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 89% | +0.05 |
| 31/07/2025 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 44% | -0.32 |
| 23/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 10/09/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 18/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |