6
Whine Country
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 97
Colonial Downs · Race 6 - Allowance · 1m 2f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/02/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 08/03/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 20/05/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |