3
Carolyncaroline
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 94
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Shenandoah Stakes · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength24%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/07/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 07/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |
| 03/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |
| 14/12/2025 | 9th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 24/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |