4
Hark Theangelssing
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 92
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Shenandoah Stakes · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength32%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 23/08/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 25% | -0.64 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 70% | +0.54 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 18/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |