2
Meilani
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 93
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Shenandoah Stakes · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | BHA90 | 2nd | 7th | −5 |
| 2026-04-04 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-07 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-09-13 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 17/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 43% | -0.36 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 90% | -0.01 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 04/04/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |