8
Ridgie
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 78
Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Shenandoah Stakes · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-01-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-09-22 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength35%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 8/13 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 20/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/01/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 28/01/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 25% | -0.69 |
| 20/02/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |