IvyArcIvyArc
5

Spinelli

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 95

Colonial Downs · Race 8 - Shenandoah Stakes · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Monmouth Park 27/07/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 102 · 5f Fm 118 · below its mark27/07/2025 · OR 102 par27/07C5OR 102C6 @ Gulfstream 16/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 5f110y 120 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 86 parC6 @ Turfway Park 21/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 86 · 6f 122 · below its mark21/12/2025 · OR 86 par21/12C6OR 86C6 @ Gulfstream 08/01/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 86 · 5f Fm 122 · below its mark08/01/2026 · OR 86 parC6 @ Gulfstream 05/02/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 90 · 5f Fm 122 · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 90 par5/02C6OR 90C6 @ Gulfstream 07/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 89 · 1m Fm 122 · below its mark07/03/2026 · OR 89 parC6 @ Gulfstream 04/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 88 · 1m110y Gd 123 · below its mark04/04/2026 · OR 88 par4/04C6OR 88C6 @ Gulfstream 07/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 88 · 5f110y 120 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 88 parC5 @ Monmouth Park 05/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 93 · 5f110y Gd 116 · below its mark05/07/2026 · OR 93 par5/07C5OR 93projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-05Monmouth Park?2nd2nd0
2026-06-07Gulfstream?1st2nd−1
2026-04-04Gulfstream?4th5th−1
2026-03-07Gulfstream?3rd4th−1
2026-02-05Gulfstream?7th8th−1
2026-01-08Gulfstream?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/078/014/045/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength90%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/07/20254th5/287%57%-0.30
16/11/20252nd11/1094%83%-0.11
21/12/20255th11/271%60%-0.11
08/01/20265th9/153%56%+0.03
05/02/20267th11/271%0%-0.71
07/03/20263rd16/116%82%+0.66
04/04/20264th7/282%50%-0.32
07/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
05/07/20262nd7/282%75%-0.07