5
Azizam
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 103
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Colonial Turf Dash Stakes · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | BHA105 | 4th | 11th | −6 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-05 | Keeneland | BHA105 | 6th | 13th | −6 |
| 2025-08-31 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 18/06/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 91% | +0.28 |
| 31/07/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 31/08/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 05/10/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 19/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 63% | -0.20 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |