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3

Beautiful War

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 103

Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Colonial Turf Dash Stakes · 6f

#10

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 08/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 1m Fm 1228/02C6C6 @ Gulfstream 12/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 100 · 1m Fm 123 · below its mark12/03/2026 · OR 100 par12/03C6OR 100C5 @ Keeneland 19/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 104 · 1m1f110y Fm 118 · below its mark19/04/2026 · OR 104 par19/04C5OR 104C6 @ Churchill Downs 05/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 103 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark05/06/2026 · OR 103 par5/06C6OR 103C6 @ Ellis Park 04/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 100 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark04/07/2026 · OR 100 par4/07C6OR 100projClass-projected finish: 10th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-04Ellis Park?6th7th−1
2026-06-05Churchill Downs?5th6th−1
2026-04-19Keeneland?7th8th−1
2026-03-12Gulfstream?4th5th−1
2026-02-08Gulfstream?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0212/0319/045/064/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength18%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/02/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
12/03/20264th3/184%57%-0.27
19/04/20267th13/266%45%-0.20
05/06/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
04/07/20266th12/137%38%+0.01