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10

Chasing Freedom

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 97

Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Colonial Turf Dash Stakes · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Keeneland 12/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11912/10C6C6 @ Aqueduct 14/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 95 · 6f Fm 119 · below its mark14/11/2025 · OR 95 par14/11C6OR 95C6 @ Fair Grounds 27/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 90 · 5f110y Fm 120 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 90 par27/12C6OR 90C6 @ Fair Grounds 16/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 4 · OR 88 · 5f110y Gd 120 · beat its mark16/02/2026 · OR 88 par16/02C6OR 88C5 @ Belmont At The Big A 23/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 91 · 6f Fm 120 · below its mark23/05/2026 · OR 91 par23/05C5OR 91projClass-projected finish: 8th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-23Belmont At The Big A?3rd3rd0
2026-02-16Fair Grounds?1st3rd−2
2025-12-27Fair Grounds?7th9th−2
2025-11-14Aqueduct?4th6th−2
2025-10-12Keeneland?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/1014/1127/1216/0223/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength58%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/10/20252nd9/276%91%+0.15
14/11/20254th5/287%57%-0.30
27/12/20257th10/382%25%-0.57
16/02/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
23/05/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38