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7

Doubting Thomas

3yo Colt · 8-10 · OR 94

Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Colonial Turf Dash Stakes · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

14%

Place Prob

26%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 1.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 30/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 11930/07C6C5 @ Colonial Downs 23/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 96 · 5f110y Fm 120 · beat its mark23/08/2025 · OR 96 par23/08C5OR 96C5 @ Presque Isle Downs 15/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 94 · 6f 118 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 94 par15/06C5OR 94C5 @ Colonial Downs 12/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 96 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 96 par12/07C5OR 96projClass-projected finish: 1st of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Colonial Downs?2nd3rd−1
2026-06-15Presque Isle Downs?2nd2nd0
2025-08-23Colonial Downs?1st1st0
2025-07-30Colonial Downs?1st3rd−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0723/0815/0612/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength72%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/07/20251st8/158%100%+0.42
23/08/20251st4/797%100%+0.03
15/06/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
12/07/20262nd5/287%89%+0.02