8
Ewing
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 87
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Colonial Turf Dash Stakes · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼2
Strength65%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.9
Today:
Class gap: +1.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 6th | +4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | -4th | +4 |
| 2025-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2025 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 02/08/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 16/02/2026 | 6th | 4/6 | 96% | 17% | -0.80 |
| 19/07/2026 | 11th | 6/1 | 68% | 9% | -0.59 |