IvyArcIvyArc
6

Mizner

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 99

Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Colonial Turf Dash Stakes · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Colonial Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 7f Fas 1216/09C6C6 @ Colonial Downs 14/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 71 · 6f 122 · below its mark14/03/2026 · OR 71 par14/03C6OR 71C6 @ Laurel Park 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fas 124 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 77 par18/04C6OR 77C6 @ Laurel Park 14/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 84 · 6f Gd 124 · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 84 par14/05C6OR 84C5 @ Colonial Downs 12/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 97 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 97 par12/07C5OR 97projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-12Colonial Downs?4th5th−1
2026-05-14Laurel Park?1st2nd−1
2026-04-18Laurel Park?1st3rd−2
2026-03-14Colonial Downs?3rd5th−2
2025-09-06Colonial Downs?5th7th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0914/0318/0414/0512/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/09/20255th6/168%33%-0.35
14/03/20263rd7/282%33%-0.48
18/04/20261st4/1198%100%+0.02
14/05/20261st15/890%100%+0.10
12/07/20264th13/266%67%+0.01