1
Proton
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 98
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Colonial Turf Dash Stakes · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength59%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 2nd | +4 |
| 2026-03-07 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2025-10-31 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength54%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 30/11/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 78% | -0.01 |