4
Wootun
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 74
Colonial Downs · Race 9 - Colonial Turf Dash Stakes · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Gulfstream | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-10-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 10
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength78%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 18/10/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 10% | -0.43 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 01/02/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |