2
Tenability
4yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 109
Deauville · Prix De Reux Stakes - Group 3 · 1m 4f 94y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 2.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 1 | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-04 | Ascot | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | Ascot | 2 | 1st | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-09 | Ascot | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2025-07-26 | Ascot | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength86%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/05/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 12/06/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 28/06/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 06/09/2025 | 1st | 85/40 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 18/04/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |