1
Saxon Village
7yo Gelding · 9-6
Deauville · Prix De Bayeux Handicap · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.0 /10 (raw 7.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 2 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 3 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Compiegne | 3 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-28 | Chantilly | 3 | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-04-07 | Deauville | 3 | 14th | 15th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/01/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 42% | -0.14 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 87% | +0.87 |
| 26/03/2026 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 07/04/2026 | 14th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 25/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 16/06/2026 | 14th | 9/2 | 76% | 7% | -0.69 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |