15
Swift Flight
8yo Gelding · 8-13
Deauville · Prix De Bayeux Handicap · 7f 209y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Saint-Malo | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 3 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Evreux | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | 3 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength91%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 20/11/2025 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 47% | -0.22 |
| 08/04/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 10/05/2026 | 11th | 13/2 | 66% | 23% | -0.43 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 70% | +0.09 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |