8
Maria Apollonia
3yo Filly · 8-10
Deauville · Prix Michel Houyvet Listed Stakes · 1m 6f 200y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Dieppe | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-22 | Lyon-Parilly | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-22 | Marseille | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-01 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-04-08 | Deauville | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 06/12/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 19/12/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 01/05/2026 | 15th | 33/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 22/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 22/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |