5
Just A Girl
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 92
Deauville · Prix Isola Bella Listed Stakes · 7f 100y
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Newmarket | 2 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Carlisle | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-30 | Carlisle | 3 | 2nd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-15 | Newmarket | 4 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-04-17 | Wolverhampton | 3 | 4th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-04-05 | Southwell | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength43%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/08/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 21/08/2025 | 13th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.03 |
| 01/11/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/04/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 15/05/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 88% | +0.35 |
| 24/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/1 | 42% | 89% | +0.47 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |