7
Rosa Inglesa
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 90
Deauville · Prix Isola Bella Listed Stakes · 7f 100y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
70%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 2.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Ascot | 3 | 1st | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-19 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-19 | Nottingham | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Wetherby | 4 | 3rd | 7th | −3 |
| 2025-10-04 | Newmarket | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-09-18 | Chelmsford City | 5 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/08/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 89% | +0.52 |
| 18/09/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 04/10/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 19/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 93% | +0.51 |
| 11/07/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |