10
Sonatine
3yo Filly · 8-9
Deauville · Prix Isola Bella Listed Stakes · 7f 100y
#8
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Deauville | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chantilly | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2025-10-20 | Deauville | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength61%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 20/10/2025 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 14% | -0.57 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 53% | -0.15 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 04/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 54% | +0.28 |