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4

True Test

3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 89

Deauville · Prix Isola Bella Listed Stakes · 7f 100y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength32%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.9
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Newmarket 18/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR - · 7f GF 13218/074C0 @ Deauville 24/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 84 · 6f211y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/08/2025 · OR 84 par2 @ Newbury 19/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 90 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 90 par19/092OR 902 @ Newmarket 04/10/2025 · Pos 11th of 26 · OR 89 · 7f Goo 118 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 89 parC5 @ Meydan 30/01/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 87 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark30/01/2026 · OR 87 par30/01C5OR 87C1 @ Meydan 28/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 87 · 1m Gd 126 · beat its mark28/02/2026 · OR 87 par1 @ Newmarket 03/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 19 · OR 87 · 1m GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 87 par3/051OR 872 @ Royal Ascot 19/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 30 · OR 90 · 1m GF 124 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 90 par2 @ Newmarket 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 90 · 7f GF 128 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 90 par11/072OR 90projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Newmarket23rd4th−1
2026-06-19Royal Ascot26th7th−1
2026-05-03Newmarket113th12th+1
2026-02-28Meydan?2nd2nd0
2026-01-30Meydan?4th8th−4
2025-10-04Newmarket211th12th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/074/103/0511/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/07/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
24/08/20255th20/10%33%+0.33
19/09/20252nd13/891%83%-0.08
04/10/202511th12/137%60%+0.23
30/01/20264th17/255%77%+0.22
28/02/20262nd5/287%86%-0.01
03/05/202613th250/10%33%+0.33
19/06/20266th50/10%83%+0.83
11/07/20263rd9/276%75%-0.01