12
Alcotan
6yo Gelding · 9-1
Deauville · Prix De Crepon Handicap · 7f 209y
#5
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Compiegne | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chantilly | 4 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Nantes | 2 | 15th | 14th | +1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Nantes | 4 | 15th | 16th | −1 |
| 2025-12-09 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 01/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 25/09/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 09/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 09/12/2025 | 9th | 22/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 29/05/2026 | 15th | 25/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 16/06/2026 | 15th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 28/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |