16
Light Wakeup
8yo Gelding · 8-2
Deauville · Prix De Crepon Handicap · 7f 209y
#8
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.2 /10 (raw 8.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.2
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Le Lion D'angers | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Chantilly | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Compiegne | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Compiegne | 3 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 16
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 11th | 80/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 26/04/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 09/05/2026 | 12th | 14/1 | 26% | 21% | -0.05 |
| 20/05/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 09/06/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 53% | +0.27 |
| 18/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 58% | -0.07 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 78% | -0.05 |
| 05/07/2026 | 10th | 5/1 | 74% | 31% | -0.43 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |