6
Lightning Raid
4yo Colt · 9-4
Deauville · Prix De Crepon Handicap · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
37%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-09 | Compiegne | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Fontainebleau | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength99%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2026 | 6th | 28/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 29/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |