2
He Is No Lie
2yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 109
Del Mar · Race 3 - Best Pal Stakes - Grade 3 · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲5
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 1.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -4.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 8th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength99%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/2026 | 1st | 1/3 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |