Doncic
8yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 109
Del Mar · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-17 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-27 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 16/08/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 03/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 27/10/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 15/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 21/02/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 02/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 20% | -0.67 |
| 17/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |