Midnite Musket
5yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 100
Del Mar · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#10
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-07 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-10-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2025-08-14 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-04-16 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-03-15 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/10/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 86% | +0.12 |
| 04/01/2025 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 07/02/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/03/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 16/04/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 44% | -0.03 |
| 14/08/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 04/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 07/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |