Regal Patriot
6yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 115
Del Mar · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 5 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.1 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-28 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2025-10-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-09-07 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2025-07-24 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-06-27 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2025 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 73% | +0.46 |
| 02/05/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 18/05/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 27/06/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 78% | -0.17 |
| 24/07/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 16/08/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 78% | +0.20 |
| 07/09/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 28/11/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |