2

Sharp Aza Tack

6yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 90

Del Mar · Race 4 - Claiming · 5f

#11

Rank

Odds

15/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move1
Strength56%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Santa Anita 17/03/2024 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 102 · 6f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/03/2024 · OR 102 par17/03C6OR 102C6 @ Santa Anita 26/04/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 102 · 6f110y Gd 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark26/04/2025 · OR 102 parC7 @ Santa Anita 18/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 99 · 6f110y Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark18/05/2025 · OR 99 par18/05C7OR 99C8 @ Santa Anita 14/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 100 · 6f Fm 124 · beat its mark14/06/2025 · OR 100 parC6 @ Del Mar 16/08/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 100 · 5f Fm 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/08/2025 · OR 100 par16/08C6OR 100C6 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 13/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 104 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark13/09/2025 · OR 104 parC8 @ Santa Anita 03/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 103 · 6f 122 · below its mark03/10/2025 · OR 103 par3/10C8OR 103C7 @ Santa Anita 27/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 102 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 102 parC8 @ Del Mar 08/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 104 · 5f Fm 120 · below its mark08/11/2025 · OR 104 par8/11C8OR 104projClass-projected finish: 8th of 11
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-11-08Del Mar?6th6th0
2025-10-27Santa Anita?6th5th+1
2025-10-03Santa Anita?4th4th0
2025-09-13Los Alamitos Racecourse?2nd0th+2
2025-08-16Del Mar?8th6th+2
2025-06-14Santa Anita?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/0314/063/108/11
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 11
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength29%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/03/20241st11/1094%100%+0.06
26/04/20258th9/153%0%-0.53
18/05/20253rd4/179%71%-0.08
14/06/20251st15/890%100%+0.10
16/08/20258th12/137%22%-0.15
13/09/20252nd11/486%86%+0.00
03/10/20254th9/488%50%-0.38
27/10/20256th7/282%29%-0.53
08/11/20256th15/261%44%-0.16