Chapter One
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 79
Del Mar · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-02-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 18/01/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 70% | +0.07 |
| 15/02/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 01/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/07/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 13% | -0.45 |