7
Tug
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 69
Delaware Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
33%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Delaware Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Delaware Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength72%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/02/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 27/02/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 13/03/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 24/04/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 16/05/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 30/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |