Panchita
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 61
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-04 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |