7
Rio Oso
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 53
Delaware Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Charles Town | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 71% | +0.14 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 26/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |