6
Chance
6yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 92
Delaware Park · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 7f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-11 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-06-27 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 17
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 17. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/03/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 27% | -0.39 |
| 11/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 08/06/2025 | 7th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 27/06/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 14/09/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |
| 11/10/2025 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 30% | -0.59 |
| 13/12/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/4 | 93% | 60% | -0.33 |